RIVER: Playing the river in texas hold em poker.
Sometimes the best move a player can make on the river is to fold. Often this is not an easy move to make. There are many variables that go into such a decision. Some of the questions that should be analyzed are as follows: What are the chances of you having the best hand if it comes to a showdown? What are the pot odds? Have you been the bettor or the caller up to this point? How much of you played with your opponent(s) up to this point? How much will you play with your oppenent(s) in the future? Are there any obvious tells? Are you in a tournament or a regular game?
These and other questions are not mutually exclusive. The decision to fold on the river can require a great amount of discipline. We'll use a simple example to go through some of the major points that need to be addressed. Suppose the pot had $30 before the river and it is now down to just you and one opponent on the river. Your opponent is on your right so he makes the first move. He bets $10 bringing the pot total to $40. You think his hand is better than yours. You know this opponent fairly well and in this example you know that if you raise he will call(he cannot be bluffed here) so your 2 best options appear to be to fold or to call.
The pot odds here are straightforward. If you call you are risking an additional $10 to win the pre-river $30 plus the $10 river bet that your opponent just put in. In other words you are risking $10 to win $40 so your odds are 4 to 1. Suppose you are an experienced player and you have analyzed the questions above as well as other factors to determine that your opponent is a 60% favorite to win if there is a showdown. If your analysis is correct that your are a 6 to 4 underdog then the correct move is to call. This is because the pot odds are favorable in comparison to the odds of winning the showdown. This can be seen more clearly by supposing that the above scenario happens 10 times. If you call all 10 times suppose you win 4 of them and lose 6. You get $40*4 or $160 for your 4 wins and you lose $10*6 or $60 for your losses so you end up being up $100 not counting what happened before the river. If you fold all 10 times then you end up being up $0 not counting what happened before the river.
The decision would be more difficult if your odds of winning the showdown were only 20% because then you would be comparing 4 to 1 versus 8 to 2 and you could go either way. In other words if the scenario occurs 10 times then you could win 2 times and lose 8 times. You get $40*2 or $80 for your 2 wins and you lose $10*8 or $80 for your losses so you end up being up $0 not counting what happened before the river. If you fold all 10 times then you end up being up $0 not counting what happened before the river.
Suppose you know your chances of winning a showdown are only 10%. In this case you're comparing pot odds of 4 to 1 versus winning odds of 9 to 1 so you should probably fold. Again this is easier to see if we use the same scenario 10 times. If you win 1 of the 10 times and lose the other 9 then you get $40*1 or $40 for your win and you lose $10*9 or $90 on your losing hands. This means you end up being down $50 not counting what happened before the river.
The important thing to remember is that it is important to compare pot odds to your chances of winning the showdown. In this case pot odds are easy to see but knowing the correct odds of winning the showdown are more difficult to calculate. However, with experience it becomes easier to more accurately know your odds of winning showdowns.
Some players can't see the big picture and are unable to lay hands down on the river. For example suppose the board had 10,J,Q of hearts and you have 8,9 of hearts. You have a straight flush. If there is an 80% chance that your opponent has K,A of hearts and the pot odds are not good then you should fold. In other words if the pre-river pot had $20 and your opponent is on your right and he bets $10 on the river and you know he cannot be bluffed then it is probably best to fold. Some player cannot do this. Some players cannot fold premium hands like straight flushes even when the math tells them to do so.
The other extreme is when players put hands down too often. Suppose your opponent has a 60% chance of winning the showdown so you fold your hand. He shows his cards(that happen to be winners) and you boast that you made the right move by folding. If the pots odds were good enough and your 60% assessment was accurate then you may need to rethink your decision for the long run.
The bottom line is that folding on the river is not an easy play to make. However, good players do it on a regular basis and it is important to recognize when it is necessary. There are times when you know for a fact that you are beat and it is key to understand when this is the case. Folding in certain situations on fifth street can end up saving large sums of money in the long run.